राजनीति

6 factors that could sway Karnataka assembly results, from Modi to ‘misgovernance’

The Election Commission (EC) on Wednesday announced that polling in Karnataka for 224 assembly seats will take place on 10 May and the vote-counting exercise to decide the political outcome in the southern state will take place on 13 May.

The three major political parties in Karnataka — the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and former allies Congress and Janata Dal (Secular) — are leaving nothing to chance to get another crack at power, but there are many aspects that can potentially unravel these aspirations.

ThePrint takes a look.

The 80-year-old Lingayat strongman, BJP leader, and four-time chief minister of Karnataka is potentially the most important figure in the poll-bound state.

His popularity will play an important role not just in the fortunes of the BJP but also of other political parties like the Congress and JD(S).

The BJP is well aware of Yediyurappa’s clout as his unhappy exit from the party in 2012 — he had resigned after being indicted in a case of graft and gone on to form his own outfit — had brought down the BJP’s seat from 110 in the 2008 assembly election to just 40 in the next one in 2013.

Yediyurappa is also known to have a good working relationship with Siddaramaiah, veteran Congress leader and another former state CM, and HD Deve Gowda, JD(S) chief and former PM, among other leaders of political parties.

These three veteran leaders, Yediyurappa, Siddaramaiah and Gowda, have remained relevant politically, enjoyed power, and influenced policy irrespective of the party in government in Karnataka. Political analysts describe them as “local coalition-builders” — which is key to winning Karnataka with its long history of alliance governments.

The Congress and JD(S), former allies in the state, have used Yediyurappa’s ill-treatment by the BJP to seek support from the Lingayat community, which is for nearly 17 per cent of the state’s total population.

It is believed that Yediyurappa was key to the reservation demands from the Panchamasalis, Vokkaligas, and other communities. It is also thought that Yediyurappa encouraged these communities to continue supporting caste-based politics and resist the BJP’s in the state, under current Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai.

Bommai is facing allegations of corruption and while it’s not the first time that such charges have been levelled against a government, the tone and tenor appears far more intense this time.

Bommai has been on multiple occasions by the state opposition over the so-called bitcoin scandal, “40 per cent commission charges” on government tenders by the state contractors’ association, and alleged misappropriation of funds during the Covid pandemic.

The Congress’s “PayCM” has stuck to the chief minister and the latter’s defence that “even the Congress did it” has not helped his cause.

It is hard to recall any flagship scheme that Bommai has announced, but he is associated with the crumbling infrastructure and flooding in Bengaluru, poor governance, and

It remains to be seen if graft charges will have any influence on voting behaviour.

Reservation conundrum

The Karnataka BJP government’s recent to remove Muslims from the backward classes list, under which they got 4 per cent reservation, and redistribute the quota among Lingayats and Vokkaligas, and other groups, is similar to the Siddaramaiah-led government’s decision in 2018 to accord separate religion status to the Lingayats.

Though the Bommai government has announced redistribution of 4 per cent reservation among the Vokkaligas and Lingayats, there has been no positive response from these two dominant groups so far, as the proposal has legal challenges.

Caste and community are political hot potatoes in Karnataka and few governments venture into this area as there is no telling if political parties stand to gain or lose. Any perceived “injustice” to the community is a big factor for these groups.

The BJP’s apparent attempt to pit the Vokkaligas and Lingayats against the Muslims seems counterintuitive as there are several constituencies where its own party leaders depend on votes from all three communities.

In Bommai’s case, removing Muslims from the backward classes list has led to opposition from the community, which makes up for around 13 per cent of the state’s population. The move is also in line with the CM’s on the hijab, and other utterances targeting the minorities during his regime.

Infighting issues

Karnataka is possibly the only state where there are more than two active political players capable of altering outcomes.

The JD(S), Congress, and BJP have enjoyed power on their own or with an alliance in the last two decades. The JD(S) is the only party that has allied with both the national outfits (with the Congress in 2004 and 2018, and with the BJP in 2006), and this time may be no different as a fractured verdict can reinstate its “kingmaker” status.

But this also depends on the internal workings of the parties themselves as all three of them stare at significant challenges from within.

The BJP has seen bitter infighting under Bommai, and is treading a fine line to not ignore Yediyurappa nor give him too much importance.

Within the Congress, the battle for dominance has also peaked in recent months as the camps of Siddaramaiah and state unit chief D.K. Shivakumar who will be the “next chief minister”.

The JD(S) faces challenges from within the family of party supremo Gowda. His two politically active sons — former CM H.D. Kumaraswamy and H.D. Revanna — have been fighting each other to gain control over the party, denting its own chances.

‘Unofficial’ alliances

In Karnataka’s volatile political climate, coalition-builders like Yediyurappa, Siddaramaiah and Gowda are key to power. Their strategies include allying with individual leaders or groups in specific constituencies.

Allegations that parties like the Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI) and AIMIM are “funded by the BJP to split minority votes” are not uncommon. The BJP has in turn accused the Congress of seeking the support of parties like the SDPI to defeat the saffron outfit.

There are also instances where JD(S) workers have supported the BJP, especially in the northern districts of Karnataka where the former has no real presence. In return, the BJP machinery has supported the JD(S) in parts of Vokkaliga-dominated Old Mysuru as the two have combined in the past to take on the Congress.

This also has to do with caste to an extent, as BJP leaders like R. Ashoka, D.V. Sadananda Gowda, and Pratap Simha, among others, are believed to be dependent on Gowda for support from the Vokkaliga community.

Though smaller parties have not made that big an impact in recent elections, their ability to chip away votes can bring down margins and shift the scales.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi

The BJP is relying heavily on PM Modi to bring in votes, but Karnataka has in the past voted for different governments at the central and state levels.

Though the BJP has been in power for nine years in Karnataka, it has not managed to get a majority on its own and has had to engineering defections and poaching legislators.

Modi had campaigned extensively for the party prior to the 2018 state election as well, but the BJP managed to get only 104 of 224 seats. Additionally, most of the BJP “achievements” highlighted by Modi in the state are central government-sponsored schemes.

There is also a perceptual challenge that Modi has “tolerated” corruption by its own chief minister and other leaders in Karnataka.

(Edited by Nida Fatima Siddiqui)